Marathon Pundit: Cook Political: WVSen now a toss up

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Cook Political: WVSen now a toss up

The Democrats must feel that they are captaining a deteriorating boat--every few miles a new leak is discovered. The West Virginia US Senate race is just the latest of those leaks.

From the Cook Political Report, free registration required:

This special election to fill the remainder of the late Sen. Robert Byrd's term was supposed to be a walk in the park for Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin. The Democratic-controlled state legislature set the table for him with an advantageous schedule of filing deadlines, primaries and special election dates. But, recent polling indicates that this will be anything but an easy race.

A Rasmussen (IVR) poll (September 27 of 750 likely voters) gave Republican businessman John Raese a two-point lead over Manchin, 48 percent to 46 percent. A Public Policy Polling (IVR) survey taken a week earlier (September 18-19 of 1,397 likely voters) had Raese ahead, 46 percent to 43 percent. Among all general election ballot tests taken in the contest, Raese now leads Manchin by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent, according to the HuffPollster.com trend line.

Although Manchin remains popular – his job approval rating in a September 19 Rasmussen survey was 69 percent – he must make the transition from being the state's chief executive to being a federal candidate in a hostile climate for his party. A case in point is President Obama whose approval ratings in West Virginia are some of his lowest nationally. According to the PPP survey, Obama's job ratings were 30-percent approve to 64-percent disapprove. At the same time, Manchin is getting help from some unlikely sources. It’s not surprising that he's been endorsed by the major labor unions, but he’s also gotten the endorsement of the Chamber of Commerce. Even more surprising is today’s endorsement from the West Virginia Coal Association, which is a very direct slap at Raese, who is in the coal business.