One feature giving Republicans an edge is that several senate seats are up for grabs because the politicians who were elected to fill them are now serving in the Obama administration. This includes seats formerly held by Mr. Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.
Rep. Mark Kirk is a strong candidate to pick up Mr. Obama's old seat in Illinois. Rep. Mike Castle, a popular former governor, could pick up Mr. Biden's former seat in Delaware. In New York, Democrats will try to defend Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's old seat by rallying behind Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, but she is vulnerable to a strong Republican challenge.
One of the most interesting Senate races this year will be in Colorado. Democrat Michael Bennet was appointed to fill the seat of Ken Salazar, who left to become Interior secretary. Mr. Bennet has never held elective office before and faces a tough primary challenge from a former state House speaker. Waiting for whoever emerges is the formidable Republican Jane Norton, a popular former lieutenant governor.
Other vulnerable Democratic incumbents according to Rove are Chris Dodd of Connecticut, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, and the biggest Dem of all--Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada.
In the latest Rasmussen poll, Democratic frontrunner Alexi Giannoulias has a narrow leader over Mark Kirk for the seat currently held by Rod Blagojevich-appointee Roland Burris. Assuming Giannolias wins the February primary, he presents a fat target for the GOP because of his family bank's ties to Tony Rezko and loans to mob figures made by the now-troubled financial institution.
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