Marathon Pundit: The decline and fall of the dollar--and America

Monday, October 12, 2009

The decline and fall of the dollar--and America

Although he hasn't said it during his never ending presidential campaign, Barack Obama wants the United States to be just another country, a Belgium or a Costa Rica.

There is nothing inherently wrong with those nations, but because of our noble (not Nobel) purpose and of course our size, America has been a force for good in this world. Sure, we are not perfect, but as Randy Newman sang in Political Science, "But Heaven knows we try."

If you need to know what I'm talking about, look up American Exceptionalism.

So like Jimmy Carter, Obama feels a weaker America is a better America. But when a decline is initiated, a free fall can follow.

And not just in militarily, as Bloomberg explains:

Central banks flush with record reserves are increasingly snubbing dollars in favor of euros and yen, further pressuring the greenback after its biggest two-quarter rout in almost two decades.

Policy makers boosted foreign currency holdings by $413 billion last quarter, the most since at least 2003, to $7.3 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nations reporting currency breakdowns put 63 percent of the new cash into euros and yen in April, May and June, the latest Barclays Capital data show. That's the highest percentage in any quarter with more than an $80 billion increase.

World leaders are acting on threats to dump the dollar while the Obama administration shows a willingness to tolerate a weaker currency in an effort to boost exports and the economy as long as it doesn't drive away the nation's creditors. The diversification signals that the currency won't rebound anytime soon after losing 10.3 percent on a trade-weighted basis the past six months, the biggest drop since 1991.

"Global central banks are getting more serious about diversification, whereas in the past they used to just talk about it," said Steven Englander, a former Federal Reserve researcher who is now the chief U.S. currency strategist at Barclays in New York. "It looks like they are really backing away from the dollar."