Sunday, October 31, 2010

KYSen: Paul pulls away in PPP poll

At the risk of looking like a Thomas E. Dewey campaign staffer in 1948, it might be time--in some races--to celebrate Republican victories. But get your butt out and vote on Tuesday as if your livelihood depended on it. Because it does.

The reason for my optimism? A Public Policy Polling survey on the Kentucky US Senate race that reads like a Philadelphia newspaper the day after the Chicago Blackhawks defeated the Flyers in the Stanley Cup finals.

Rand Paul has expanded his lead in the Kentucky Senate race even further over the last week and is headed for a blowout win. His margin over Jack Conway is 55-40.

Kentucky is obviously a conservative state. Conway's ability to win was always going to depend on getting a lot of folks who supported John McCain in 2008 to vote Democratic for the Senate this time around. The most amazing finding on this final poll is that Rand Paul is actually picking up more Obama voters (15%) than Conway is McCain voters (9%). That's the formula for a landslide.

Over the last month of the campaign this went from being a relatively competitive race to a not so competitive one. That didn't have a ton to do with Rand Paul- his favorability in early September was 45/40 and now it's 48/43, basically unchanged. The shift is more a reflection of Jack Conway's image with Kentucky voters being shattered in the closing days. Seven weeks ago his favorability split evenly with 36% of voters rating him positively and negatively alike. Now he's very unpopular with only 34% of voters saying they like him and 52% expressing unfavorable opinions toward him.
The House appears to be a lock for the GOP, but as Doug Ross reports, the reliable Intrade market predictor forecasts an 8 seat GOP pick-up in the Senate. But 12 are still in reach.

Every vote accounts.


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