A Chicago Tribune poll released this morning showed Kirk with a 44-41 percent lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, which is nothing new, Kirk has led almost every poll for the last five months with a similar narrow margin.
The National Journal digs deep into the poll and finds some interesting nuggets:
Neither item should be surprising. Statewide, Illinoisans elected just one Republican, in the '00s, Judy Baar Topinka, ironically for the office Giannoulias now occupies, treasurer. So the GOP as a group is the challenger, and late in the race, the undecideds usually run away from the incumbent.First, the independents. That important voting bloc appears to be breaking for Kirk. Fifty percent said in the recent poll that they support Kirk, up from 38 percent in a similar poll four weeks ago. Giannoulias is holding steady with just 28 percent among independents. The number of undecided independents dropped from 22 percent four weeks ago to 8 percent in this poll, indicating that it looks like they are flocking to Kirk.
The other worrisome point for Giannoulias: The collar counties. These suburban Chicago counties are critical for Republicans running statewide in Illinois. Democrats have to at least hold their own in this area in order to be successful. In this most recent poll, Kirk is leading 55 percent to 30 percent in these Chicago suburbs.
The Republicans have suffered in the collar counties, their traditional base of support, in recent elections. But this is the same group that is running away from the Obama agenda that Alexi Giannoulias so enthusiastically supports. It appears the suburbanites are coming home. But the GOP needs to earn their loyalty after Election Day.
As for Topinka, she is the Republican candidate for state comptroller this year.
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