Charlie Cook: Independents want less government

In the otherwise loathsome "Any Given Sunday," Al Pacino's Tony D'Amato character gives a memorable pregame speech in which he calls football "a game of inches."

And so it is in politics. And inches are being gained by the Republicans as Charlie Cook reports in the National Journal.

In four consecutive NBC/WSJ polls, starting 11 months ago, however, the story changed. More people began to say that government was doing too much. The margins were not breathtaking -- 2-to-5 points -- but they were noteworthy.

More importantly, however, a change began to take place about a year ago among independent voters, who are usually less engaged and less ideological than either party's faithful. Democrats have long tended to believe that government should do more and Republicans have consistently preached that government does too much.

By a few points, independent voters had generally sided with Democrats in favor of the government doing more, but they significantly changed their tune beginning last September. More than half, 56 percent, said then that government was doing too many things, and only 35 percent said that government should do more. In the five polls that began that month, the "less government" opinion won out by 10-to-21 points among independents, most recently in June 2010 by 15 points, 55 percent to 40 percent. That survey obviously came after the House voted for cap-and-trade legislation and after the health care reform battle was fully engaged.

Such a decisive shift in swing voters' attitudes about government's proper role will inevitably have electoral and policy implications. Independents supported Democrats for Congress by an 18-point margin in 2006, and by an 8-point advantage in 2008. In general, the shift among independents approximates the national popular vote for the House and translates very clearly into seats. In Gallup's polling this year, Republicans have averaged a 10-point lead in the generic congressional ballot test. An 18-point reversal, from an 8-point lead for Democrats in 2008 to a 10-point edge for Republicans, would have a dramatic impact in swing congressional districts and other key House and Senate races this year.

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