Tuesday, June 01, 2010

LeBron James as a Bull will bring $2 billion to Chicago?

A University of Illinois-Chicago economist is reporting that the addition to NBA superstar LeBron James to the Chicago Bulls roster could mean an additional $2 billion to Chicago's economy.

I'm enjoying the Chicago Blackhawks so-far successful run in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Why not another great team?

But to view James as a city-wide economic savior is a bit naive. Crains Chicago Business presents the evidence of a James-jolt. Restaurants near the United Center will get busier, more Bulls shirts will be sold, ad rates for Bulls games will be hiked--that sort of thing.

Yet we're still looking at a zero-sum game, or close to it. Restaurants near the UC will enjoy a slam-dunk in business, but just those restaurants will do better. Since few people eat two dinners a night in a restaurant, it means another restaurant will have one less table filled. LeBron James shirts? How many of those can someone buy? What that means, in my opinion, a James jersey purchased means one less sports-themed shirt purchased, let's say a Luol Deng item. As for higher TV ratings, even in this day of DVR viewing, people can only watch one TV program at a time. More Chicagoans watching a Bulls games means fewer people watching other shows.

It's called the substitution effect. Additionally, personal entertainment budgets are, perhaps subconsciously, are a relatively fixed item.

LeBron James wearing red and black will mean more green for Chicago, but count me as a skeptic in regards to a $2 billion cash infusion. Besides, the theory of sports as an economic savior has been discredited.

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