Ill. gov race: Attack of the phony polls

Kirk Dillard's claim that he is polling in the mid-twenties--possibly enough to win in the seven-way Illinois GOP gubernatorial race--doesn't pass the smell test. The Hinsdale state senator has no identifiable base, besides, when find out about Dillard's appearance in a Barack Obama television commercial, Republicans turn away from him.

Now Dillard appears to be getting desperate. He is releasing phony polls. But it's not just him. Former Illinois Republican Chairman Andy McKenna, who is running as an "outsider," is playing the same disingenuous game.

From the Jim Ryan campaign:

There he goes again. Kirk Dillard and his surrogates are making up poll numbers again. In Sunday's edition of the State Journal Register, Dillard's "polling firm" is claiming that Kirk is again polling in the mid-20s, far ahead of his opponents.

That's the same lie he was spreading in October and November of last year until he was caught. Days after Dillard said on Chicago radio he was leading the race and in a newspaper that "I'm 2-1 ahead of everyone else in DuPage County," the real polls came out and were published. They showed Dillard drawing between 6 and 9 percent of the vote, far behind Jim Ryan, who averaged between 26-30 percent. As recently as four days before Christmas, Dillard was running nearly 20 points behind Jim Ryan in a Rasmussen poll.

That claim that Dillard was ahead 2-1 in DuPage County? One poll showed Jim Ryan ahead of Dillard there by a 34-7 margin.

The truth is that Dillard's surrogates won’t publicly release their polls and their dubious methodology. Who's being polled? What are the questions before and after, etc.? Unless a campaign releases the poll in its entirety, consider it false. Because if Dillard really had a poll as he suggests, it would be hailed at a press conference and passed out to reporters.

Occasionally, a journalist will fail to ask the right questions and publish what amounts to campaign propaganda, as columnist Bernie Schoenburg did today. Schoenburg also uncritically published a claim by an Andy McKenna surrogate that unsurprisingly claims that McKenna is doing well in two counties representing 6.8 percent of the state vote. Were the full results released? No. Did McKenna release any statewide numbers. No. Another phony poll.

We expect the race to tighten down the stretch. But there's no way that Dillard or McKenna have dramatically flipped the race upside down in just a couple of weeks. See the published polls below and compare with the unpublished claims you are reading today. You decide.

Our advice—unless you see the full results, consider what you are reading a lie.

Jim Ryan poll (Ayres, McHenry & Associates)
Publicly released
Ryan–26
Brady–10
Dillard–4
McKenna–4
Adam–3
Proft–2
Schillerstrom–2

Nov. 16
Adam poll (Wilson Research Strategies)
Publicly released
Ryan–30
Brady–11
Adam–11
McKenna–10
Dillard–7
Schillerstrom–3
Proft–2

Dec. 8
Chicago Tribune poll
Publicly released
Ryan–26
McKenna–12
Brady–10
Dillard–9
Adam–6
Schillerstrom–2
Proft–2

Dec. 21
Rasmussen Poll
Head-to-head versus Quinn
JRyan +7
McKenna -8 (15 points worse than Ryan)
Dillard -11 (18 points worse than Ryan)
Brady -15 (22 points worse than Ryan)

Related post:

Marathon Pundit endorses Jim Ryan for Illinois governor

Technorati tags: Politics illinois Illinois Politics Republican jim ryan 2010 gop kirk dillard andy mckenna