Karl Rove on next week's elections

Normally odd-year elections are overlooked even by political junkies, but this year is different, as Karl Rove explains in this morning's Wall Street Journal:

Democratic enthusiasm for President Barack Obama's liberal domestic agenda—particularly for a government-run health insurance program—could wane after the results of the gubernatorial elections next Tuesday in Virginia and New Jersey. GOP victories in either state will tell Democrats in red states and districts that support for Obama's policies is risky to their political health.

The more significant is the open race for governor in Virginia, a purple state. The Washington Post poll released Monday showed 55% support for Republican Attorney General Bob McDonnell and 44% for Democratic State Senator Creigh Deeds. The president is trying to reverse these numbers by stumping the state for Mr. Deeds.

Mr. McDonnell has relentlessly focused on the economy, transportation and education. Mr. Deeds tried to make the race about abortion and his opponent's supposed animus toward working women. But Mr. McDonnell understood that anti-Obama, anti-Washington sentiment was not enough to win and bent the contest back to jobs, roads and schools. He also has a good ground game to turn out the vote, which the GOP hasn't done for too many years in Virginia.

If Republicans also win the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general by five points or more, it will strengthen the case of those predicting a GOP "wave" in 2010.

There is also a close race in New Jersey between incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey, who is being challenged by Republican Chris Christie and independent Chris Daggett. Pollsters are say the race is too close to call.

In upstate New York, there is a special election for a vacant House of Representatives seat. Republican party bosses, not voters, selected Dede Scozzafava, who is to the left of many Democrats. Doug Hoffman, who is running under the Conservative Party banner, is running as a real Republican. A victory by Hoffman will be seen as a vindication of the tea party movement. But Rove believes the Democrat, Bill Owens, will prevail. But there is always next year.

Related post:

Report from the bloggers' conference call with Bob McDonnell and Virginia business leaders

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