Burris analysis: A goner

The New York Observer comes up with some potent analysis of Roland Burris' election prospects next year:

A primary challenge is now a certainty (assuming Mr. Burris decides to run), but here Democrats must be careful: Mr. Burris will likely benefit from strong African-American support. If multiple Democrats jump into the race, Mr. Burris could corner the market on the black vote and eke out the nomination with an unimpressive plurality, maybe 30 percent of the vote. In a general election, especially in a year when the national climate probably won't be as favorable to Democrats as it was in 2008 and 2006, he'd be highly vulnerable.

The challenge for Democratic leaders, then, will be uniting early behind a consensus Burris opponent and not providing the appointed incumbent an opening to win. As mischievous as it may seem, this could include trying to coax the ambitious Jesse Jackson, Jr. into the race, whose presence would (at the least) split the black vote and destroy Mr. Burris' longshot victory strategy.

No matter what, though, it looks like Mr. Burris won't be in the Senate come 2011. If he hadn't managed to slip something past the state legislature last month, he wouldn't have gotten to the Senate in the first place.

Junior would be a fat target for the GOP next year. He was the most shameless of the campaigners for Obama's old seat, remember it was Jackson who organized a fundraiser for Rod Blagojevich just days before the former governor was arrested.

As for Burris, if he was an honorable man, he'd resign.

Thanks to Cal Skinner for pointing out a typo that needing fixing.

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