Alec MacGillis reports:
Obama posted big wins over Clinton in caucuses in Plains and Mountain states such as Kansas, Nebraska and Idaho, but Republicans in those states scoff at the suggestion that victories in the small universe of Democrats there translate into strength in November. In Tennessee and Oklahoma, Obama lost by wide margins to Clinton, who lived in nearby Arkansas. He narrowly won the primary in the swing state of Missouri, but did so thanks to the state's solidly Democratic cities, losing its more rural, and more conservative, areas to Clinton.
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The red states where he has won have tended to be in the Deep South, where victories were based on overwhelming support from African Americans, or in mostly white states in the Midwest and West, where he relied on a core of ardent backers to carry him in caucuses, which favor candidates with enthusiastic supporters. He has not fared as well in areas that fall in between, with populations that are racially diverse but lack a black population large enough to boost Obama to victory.
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1 comment:
The suggestion that Obama's candidacy might make some red states competitive next year has nothing to do with his ability to defeat Clinton in these states. It comes from his ability to bring out new voters.
In Arkansas, for example, Bush won 573K to 470K in 2004, with a 54.7% turnout. In the 2008, more than 300K people voted in the Democratic Primary in Arkansas, with 26% turnout. This suggests that a Democratic nominee could get well over 600K votes--more if he or she can drive turnout to 60%. If Republican voters are not as motivated--or if some vote for favorite daughter Clinton, should she get the nomination--Arkansas could be in play.
Georgia might offer an even better example, since none of the candidates has a history here and the Atlanta area gives Obama a large pool of potential voters. More than a million people voted for the Democrat in the primary there this year with a 32% turnout. If Obama can get the turnout to 60%, he could get close to the two million needed to pass the number Bush won there in 2004.
A lot of other things come into play, of course, but the point is that Democrats are highly motivated to vote this cycle, especially minorities. If the Republicans cannot match this fervor, some red states could come into play.
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