And he's already made his first mistake: placing his campaign headquarters in Chicago.
Until the details of what Obama later called a "boneheaded" real-estate deal with shady Democratic political insider Tony Rezko became public, Obama could claim to America and the world that he was above the sewage that is known as Illinois politics.
Chicago Tribune columnist John Kass wrote last month:
There is no state in the U.S. as politically corrupt as Illinois.
Residents of Louisiana, Rhode Island, and New Jersey might disagree, but any reasonable person has to admit that Illinois belongs in the top five in state corruption rankings.
I've spent about half my life living in Chicago, the other half living a few miles outside of it. And when I'm away from home--and I tell people where I'm from--they often counter with, "Chicago, isn't that where all those dead people vote?"
That hasn't happened in large numbers since the 1980s. Until then, Chicago voter rolls were cleaned up only quadrennially: Now Chicago and Cook County lists of voters (and I believe those of the rest of the state as well) are regularly checked against the lists of those who've departed to the next world. But that deathly reputation remains.
Presumably Barack picked a Chicago base for Obama '08 because many of his campaign staffers live in Chicago. These Chicagoans will hire other Chicagoans--people hire people like themselves. And take it from me: Chicagoans think of Iowa--when they think of it at all--as nothing more than an Interstate 80 potty-stop.
Iowa of course is where the first presidential caucuses take place. And Chicago arrogance may turn off Iowa caucus voters.
Speaking for myself, I like Iowa, and since I hope to do some Iowa presidential race blogging from the Hawkeye State, while there I hope to visit the Herbert Hoover Presidential Library and the Amana Colonies.
Then there's the Illinois primary. I don't believe Obama has anything to do with the drive to move up the date of the Illinois Primary from mid-March to early February, but if it happens, it may hurt Obama in other contests.
Chicago Tribune columnist Eric Zorn lists three reasons why it's a bad idea in relation to Illinois' junior senator, but the first one is the only one that matters.
From his blog last week:
First because it will look to the rest of American like a slippery deal, not quite a dirty trick but close enough. If Obama runs, he's going to have to distance himself from the image of his fellow Illinois/Chicago/Cook County politicians. This won't help.
Patrick Fitzgerald, the U.S. Attorney for Northern Illinois, whose office has ongoing investigations of the administrations of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley and Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich taking place, will continue to keep the bad name of Illinois politics in the news--perhaps with more grand jury indictments.
It's very unlikely that any of his investigations will have anything at all to do with Barack Obama.
But to residents of the other 49 states, Illinois politics means one thing: corruption. And Fitzgerald's office will continue to offer evidence proving that point.
Look for Obama's Democratic opponents--and if he wins his party's nomination--his Republican counterpart--to label Obama as "a politician from Chicago, Illinois." They'll sneak "Chicago" and "Illinois" in whenever they can when talking about Obama.
Will that be fair? Probably not. But politics is a nasty business.
Technorati tags: Obama Barack Obama Senate 2008 elections Illinois politics Democrats Iowa Patrick Fitzgerald corruption
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