GOP suburban gains could mean good news in 2010

My state, Illinois, used to be a Republican-leaning swing state. From 1968 through 1988, the GOP candidate carried Illinois. Granted, there were some real Dem losers on the ticket in some of those races, but a win is a win. But the Republican domination of the suburbs, which for the most part offset the Democratic Machine of Chicago, started to fade away in the late 1980s. The same story can be repeated when talking about other Great Lakes states, as well as Northeastern states.

Such as New York. Newsweek explains:

Unlike the New York City mayoral, or the Virginia governor's race, there is a really bad sign for Democrats out of the East Coast. Via The New York Times, Republicans made inroads in New York's suburbs. "In Westchester County, where Democrats have a solid advantage in voter registration, a Republican challenger, Rob Astorino, upset the incumbent Democratic County Executive, Andrew Spano, who was seeking his fourth term ... In Nassau County, Republicans recaptured the county legislature, and have come close to unseating the Democratic County Executive, Thomas R. Suozzi, in a race that remained too close to call on Wednesday morning."

Why does this matter so much? Because the New York suburbs epitomize the new Blue America. Twenty-some-odd years ago, the economically diverse, but generally affluent, suburbs in Westchester and Long Island represented the success of the Reagan Revolution. White ethnics, often Catholic, whose parents had lived in the city and voted Democratic, were turning to Republicans for lower taxes, strong national security, and traditional family values. But the New York suburbs led the way back to Democratic dominance, arguably presaging the Obama coalition. Pro-gun-control candidates such as Rep. Carolyn McCarthy from Long Island started picked up seats in the 1990s. Growing diversity and concerns about education in the postindustrial economy helped lead to Democratic inroads in local races.

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