Thursday, September 03, 2009

Support for Obama slipping in his home state

Earlier today I wrote--without any hard numbers--that support for Barack Obama was slipping in Illinois.

The president won 62 percent of the vote in his home state last fall, but his approval rate in Illinois is down to 59 percent, according to a Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll.

That may seem pretty good considering his approval rate in nationwide polls is hovering around the 50 percent mark, but Democrats in Illinois are counting on Obama to counter the Rod Blagojevich stench in the 2010 elections.

After his inauguration, Obama's national approval stood at 67 percent.

The Chicago Tribune has more:

"That's not good news for [Obama] because it is down from where he was in November, and it is his home state," said David Yepsen, a veteran of presidential campaigns as lead political writer for the Des Moines Register who now is executive director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University at Carbondale.

More...

Republicans have seized on the Blagojevich issue as an attempt to resurrect the GOP and end the Democrats' one-party control of state government following the scandal-tarred tenure of former Republican Gov. George Ryan, who is in prison on federal corruption charges.

Among the potentially troubling signs for Democrats that surfaced in the survey was the fact that only about half of voters who describe themselves as independents approved of Obama's job performance. Illinois has voted Democratic in recent elections, but independents remain a key swing block.

Additionally, 58 percent of independent voters believed that Obama's handling of the economy had done little to help the job picture in a state that has seen unemployment rise from 6.7 percent since the presidential election to 10.5 percent in July. On health-care reform, 53 percent of independent voters disapproved of Obama's actions.

It's a hunch, but my belief is that Obama's support in Illinois isn't as deep as the Democrats would like to think--African-Americans and the far-left excluded. Six years ago, most Illinoisans hadn't heard of Obama. Most people don't know who their own state senator is.

Obama's only accomplishment as a senator was to get elected president. Admittedly, that's a very big deal, but if his approval numbers continue to drop here, that won't mean so much.

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