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Barring a catastrophe, Illinois is a lock for Barack Obama. He's at 50 percent among Democrats, which is double what one-time Illinois resident Hillary Clinton has. Everyone else is so far behind they don't rate a mention here.
On the Republican side, things are more muddled. Rudy Giuliani leads with 23 percent, and Mike Huckabee is within the margin-of-error with 21 percent.
I thought Mitt Romney and John McCain would be doing a little better here. Much of the Illinois Republican establishment is behind one of those candidates. Romney polls at 14 percent, McCain at 12--followed by Fred Thompson with 11 percent. The other candidates are way back.
Family-values voters in Illinois traditionally make up 1/3 of the GOP electorate, and if Huckabee contiunues to gain strength, he could win the state. Guliani is doing well in the Chicago area--and that's where most of our voters live.
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