Friday, March 21, 2008

Rev. Wright's wrongs dragging Obama down

Jim Geraghty in his National Review Online blog has some interesting poll numbers from Survey USA that clearly shows the impact of the Rev. Wright controversy on Barack Obama's polls numbers.

In Alabama, Obama had been down 14 to McCain. Now he's down 27.

In Minnesota, Obama has gone from up 7 to down by 1 percent.

In Wisconsin, he's gone from up 11 to up by 4 percent.

In California, Obama's lead actually increased by 3 percent (to 14), but here's the biggest shocker. In Massachusetts — the state of John Kerry, Ted Kennedy, Michael Dukakis, Barney Frank, etc. — Obama's gone from up 7 to a TIE.

In the modern political era, which I'm going to classify as post-Great Depression, Republicans have won Massachusetts four times--Eisenhower did it twice, and as did Reagan. Don't look for any ad buys by the McCain campaign in the expensive Boston market.

Unless...things really tank for the Dems with Obama on the top of the ticket. The Bay State followed the national trend in four of the five GOP blow-out elections in my defined modern political era. Only in 1972, with a Kennedy in-law as the Democratic vice presidential candidate, did Massachusetts vote the other way. It was the only state the Democrats won that year.

Like Illinois, Massachusetts seems safe for an Obama-led Dem ticket. But I can hope for other results, right?

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1 comment:

pathickey said...

. . .Not mention Billy Ayers and his Old Lady - plenty of time for that.